Russia's row with Ukraine over gas supplies

Jan. 6, 2009. The Balkan pipeline is more vulnerable to the cuts of Russian supplies because there are no gas storage facilities at the inlet of the export route. Pipelines running from Ukraine into Slovakia are linked to the huge underground gas storage facilities of Western Ukraine, therefore supplies are more secure.

Ukraine holds firm in Russia gas debt dispute

Dec. 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin, of East European Gas Analysis, a consultancy, said there was “no cause for alarm”. European stocks are unusually high after a late start to the winter and a decline in demand as economies shrink.

Future Fees May Solve Kiev Gas-Debt Puzzle

Dec. 29, 2008. He said a possible cut by Gazprom wouldn't affect Ukrainian consumers until at least Jan. 10. After that date, Ukraine might start siphoning off 15 percent of the gas headed for the EU -- or 50 million cubic meters per day -- to meet its gas from Gazprom's exports to the EU.

Gazprom ups investment 12%

Dec. 22, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin <..> believes that Gazprom needs to rationalise its pipeline investment plans. He questions the need for projects outside Russia, like the North and South Stream pipelines as well as the need for some new Russian trunklines, particularly Bovanenkoye-Ukhta.

Focus on Gazprom storage

Oct. 31, 2008. Korchemkin pointed out that in talking about market prices, Putin appeared to refer only to the European market. <..> If you look at last year’s ‘netback equivalent’ from the UK border – not the German border – then the difference between that and Russian domestic prices becomes much less significant.

Rosukrenergo removed under new deal

Oct. 31, 2008. Other important questions regarding the latest Ukrainian-Russian agreement are those of Ukrainian transit and gas storage charges. Nothing at all has been said about Ukrainian storage charges.

Russia Pumps Gas Prices

Oct. 22, 2008. In the view of East European Gas Analysis head, Mikhail Korchemkin, announcing a gas OPEC is a sign of Gazprom’s panic reaction to falling oil prices.

Russian output threatened by credit squeeze

Oct. 16, 2008. However he saw the biggest danger for Gazprom not in a lack of managerial experience of crises, but because the company had “stopped maintaining profit maximisation as its goal and has instead turned into a ministry. Unlike a normal stock company, a ministry always chooses the most expensive plan and often puts political interests before economic ones.

Putin believes the price of gas in West Siberia should depend on the price of fuel oil in Rotterdam

Oct. 10, 2008. In my view, it is the same as the price of sweet water at the shore of Lake Baikal depending on the price of bottled water in the middle of Sahara Desert.

Gazprom Breaks Price Records

Oct. 2, 2008. By mid-September, the RAR price for gasoil fell 42 percent and oil fuel dropped 58 percent vs. the July maximum, said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. In view of the above, Korchemkin forecasted the gas prices to sink to $350/ths cu meters in the second quarter of 2009.

Russia, South Korea sign $100 billion gas package

Sep. 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, said South Korea will receive gas produced by the Sakhalin-1 project.

Europe Looks around Russia for Gas

Sep. 15, 2008. As Mikhail Korchemkin of East European Gas Analysis told Kommersant, everyone consciously did not mention Russia and the preliminary agreements between Azerbaijan and Russia on the purchase of all free volumes of export gas by Gazprom at European prices.

Analysis: Foreign investment in Russia amid BP-TNK dispute

Aug. 22, 2008. The government of the Russian Federation has been continually raising domestic gas prices and European prices are very high, so Gazprom has enough cash to finance necessary production and pipeline investment.

Gas Master

Aug. 19, 2008. "Gazprom wants to drain the EU projects of gas." Korchemkin said Russia is also aggressively lobbying Turkmenistan, another prospective source of gas for the West. Russia did not try to stop a recent supply agreement between Turkmenistan and China.

Gazprom Found an Underwater Lobbyist

Aug. 18, 2008. According to East European Gas Analysis director Mikhail Korchemkin, Gazprom shouldn’t have announced the time frames of the start of supplies before getting the permits with the Baltic states trying to show the officials that “nothing depends on them”.

South Stream gas project price jumps

July 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin <..> expects South Stream’s cost estimates to be revised upwards repeatedly in the future. He added that Nabucco, a rival gas pipeline project, would be 30-40 percent cheaper, meaning that gas transportation costs would also be lower compared to South Stream, which could persuade Azerbaijan to opt for Nabucco.

New mechanism needed to reflect gas supply and demand

July 26, 2008. The solution to Mikhail Korchemkin’s letter “EU gas paradox” (July 19/20) is that prices in long-term continental European gas contracts are set and indexed mostly to prices of oil products – with a lag of up to nine months. <..> Traditional contractual indexation of gas prices to oil prices has outlived the market conditions for which it was designed and should be replaced.

EU gas paradox

July 19, 2008. Sir, BP’s latest Statistical Report shows a striking difference in natural gas prices in the EU, UK, USA, Canada and Japan. The EU has the highest price. On the other hand, Gazprom’s report says European supply exceeds demand and this is likely to continue in the future. So we have a situation in Europe where oversupply is leading to price growth! That is the "EU paradox".

Medvedev Aims at Caspian Gas Lockup as Europe Seeks Supplies

July 3, 2008. "It's Putin's plan that all the gas from this part of the world should be sold by Gazprom,'' Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consulting firm in Malvern, Pennsylvania, said by telephone.

Turkey and UK buck trend of lower demand for Russian gas

June 27, 2008. In terms of Euros, Gazprom’s average European export price in 2007 dropped by about 10% between 2006 and 2007.

Gazprom to Narrow Streams

May 23, 2008. “Gazprom will be able to own shares in Latvijas Gaze, Lietuvos Dujos and Eesti Gaas, but it won’t be represented in the BODs of those companies,” said East European Gas Analysis Director Mikhail Korchemkin.

EGM Comments

Apr. 30, 2008. One of the reasons suggested to explain Gazprom’s preference for intermediaries has been to avoid export duty (30% tax). Yet Gazprom has already proved it does not need to use intermediary companies to achieve this, where its subsidiary ZMB (owned by Gazprom Germania) currently buys gas at the Turkmen border and sells it to Georgia, Mikhail Korchemkin of consultancy EEG points out.

Prodi may be offered top job in South Stream

Apr. 28, 2008. He foresees problems with environmental permits for the pipeline in the offshore economic zone of the Black Sea countries. According to Korchemkin, Viktor Chernomyrdin, former head of Gazprom and now Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, would make the best head of South Stream.

Russia Takes a Charter to Iran

Apr. 21, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the U.S. firm East European Gas Analysis thinks that the formation of a “gas OPEC” and cartel price control would push EU consumers to refuse natural gas and turn to alternative fuels.

Gazprom Hints at New Strategy for Pipeline

Apr. 17, 2008. Korchemkin explains, there are different advantages to both Austria's and Slovenia's participation in the project. Going through Slovenia is the shortest route to Northern Italy, but the Baumgarten hub in Austria would allow for greater flexibility as it connects with 2 other pipelines to Germany and Italy.

Central Asia Unwilling to Be Left Out

Apr. 15, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin <..> believes that Nabucco plus a submarine gas pipeline between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan (200 kilometers long and worth $900 million) will be much more economically profitable for Turkmenistan than participating in the Pre-Caspian Gas Pipeline project (with Gazprom).

Austria Is Out of South Stream

Apr. 14, 2008. Within a few days, it became known that the monopoly was refusing to sell gas to traders who had reserved capacity on the Trans-Austrian gas pipeline, Korchemkin said.

Gazprom May End Year as No. 2 Earner

Apr. 11, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin, a director at U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis, said Gazprom's high profitability came despite its low cost efficiency.

Gazprom to invest $15 billion in LNG project

Mar. 26, 2008. "The U.S. will buy as much Russian gas as Gazprom offers. Even if the Russian monopoly exports 65 billion cubic meters a year, it will only account for 10% of the U.S. market. I do not see any problem with exports to the U.S. On the contrary, American importers will welcome the diversification of supplies," he said.

Tymoshenko's Victory over Gazprom to Cost Much to Ukraine

Mar. 14, 2008. According to East European Gas Analysis Director Mikhail Korchemkin, Tymoshenko has won that gas battle of Russia and Ukraine, but “the whole war is ahead,” it will be for 2009 contracts. Gazprom has simply secured the normal transit via Ukraine till the end of this year and the record profits from the exports to Europe, the analyst explained.

Ukraine, Gazprom Settle Price Feud

Mar. 14, 2008. Ukraine could enjoy a discount of up to 30 percent on average European prices because it imports proportionally more of its gas in summertime than any other European country, Korchemkin said.

DJ FOCUS: More Russia-Ukraine Gas Conflicts Almost Certain

Mar. 7, 2008. "The disputes are likely to continue until Ukraine is able to buy Turkmen gas from Turkmenistan without the brokerage service of Gazprom. Then Gazprom will be out of the Ukrainian market, too," said Mikhail Korchemkin from U.S.-based East European Gas Analysis.

Gazprom Restores Gas to Ukraine

Mar. 6, 2008. "Gazprom has apparently agreed to consider the 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas sold to Ukraine in January as originating in Turkmenistan," Mikhail Korchemkin, executive director at Pennsylvania-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis, said in e-mailed comments.

Gazprom Cuts Flow Of Gas to Ukraine

Mar. 4, 2008. Korchemkin, the U.S.-based gas consultant, said the dispute boiled down to who should control the gas in Ukrainian storage facilities. "There is no politics in this conflict," Korchemkin. "It is strictly business."

Gazprom's, ENI's South Stream pipeline could be in trouble - report

Feb. 29, 2008. Quoting analyst Mikhail Korchemkin, the paper said Russia had neglected to consult countries along the sea route, adding Ukraine could gain leverage from its position along the route in the current dispute with Moscow over unpaid debts to Gazprom.

Gazprom's, ENI's South Stream pipeline could be in trouble

Feb. 29, 2008. Kommersant said while planning for the land route appears to be going well, the section that will have to pass through Ukraine's economic zone in the Black Sea could be more problematic. Quoting analyst Mikhail Korchemkin, the paper said Russia had neglected to consult countries along the sea route, adding Ukraine could gain leverage from its position along the route in the current dispute with Moscow over unpaid debts to Gazprom.

Russian paper predicts trouble for South Stream pipeline

Feb. 29, 2008. Kommersant said that while planning for the land route appears to be going well, the going could be less easy for the section that will have to pass through Ukraine's economic zone in the Black Sea. Quoting an analyst, Mikhail Korchemkin, the paper said Russia had neglected to consult countries along the sea route.

South Stream gains two new partners

Feb. 29, 2008. Ukraine has a real chance to slow down the South Stream project since South Stream's route crosses the continental shelf of Ukraine, according to Mikhail Korchemkin.

Kiev could obstruct South Stream project

Feb. 29, 2008. Russian gas giant Gazprom is repeating the mistakes it made in the Nord Stream project <..>, says Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "First, the gas monopoly signs agreements with importers and announces the gas pipeline construction, and then it applies to a transit country it has offended for a permit to conduct operations in its exclusive economic zone. Nearly the entire South Stream route is on the continental shelf of Ukraine, and a part of it runs through the Romanian shelf," he said.

Ukrainian intermediaries to be abolished

Feb. 15, 2008. EEGAS's Korchemkin confirmed to Heren Energy that supplies of Uzbek gas delivered to Ukraine had fallen dramatically during a harsh winter in the central Asian republic. Deliveries fell from 30 Mm3/d to 16 Mm3/d in December and to nominal amounts in January.

Ukraine Stored Natural-Gas Supplies Can Last More Than a Month

Feb. 12, 2008. Ukraine's daily gas demand is about 300 million cubic meters, Pennsylvania-based consultant Mikhail Korchemkin, executive director of East European Gas Analysis, said in an e-mail. Ten billion cubic meters of gas "can cover the total Ukrainian demand for about five weeks," he said.

Ukraine's Naftogaz to demand massive hike in transit cost

Jan. 31, 2008. Korchemkin told Heren Energy the proposed hike was unrealistic. <..> Korchemkin suggested Ukraine should focus on increasing the storage tariff: "Naftogaz should cancel the leases agreement with RosUkrEnergo and introduce a normal storage fee so that Gazprom pays for the storage rather than Ukrainian consumers. Basically Ukrainian storage is the equivalent of two pipelines running from Siberia through Ukraine to Europe and has saved Gazprom a huge investment - at current prices the equivalent of $40 billion plus operating costs."

Focus on Nabucco and South Stream

Jan. 31, 2008. Korchemkin <..> said that although Gazprom had got a good deal, the publicity around it would not help negotiations for the next crucial link through Hungary. "They overdid the publicity, when a quiet deal would have been better for negotiations for the next link. Hungary is now in a much better bargaining position, because now they know the route and the value of the Hungarian section for Gazprom."

Turkmenistan cuts exports causing domino effect in region

Jan. 15, 2008. The increase in [Gazprom] exports has been achieved by reducing supplies to consumers in Southern Russia, Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis told Heren Energy. This would contradict Russia's Gas Law, which sets the priority of domestic supplies over exports, Korchemkin said.

Gazprom/Ukraine deal eases European supply fears

Dec. 18, 2007. Korchemkin also said European users would not be affected by rising Ukrainian transit tariffs, but could actually benefit from them in the long term: "An increase in transit costs charged by Ukraine would benefit European security of supply, because it will allow Ukraine to invest more in pipeline infrastructure."

EU gas directive will be good for Russian consumers

Nov. 22, 2007. The higher the price in the European Union, the higher it gets for the Russian consumers. It will not be long before Russian businesses and households realise that competition, unbundling, the Energy Charter Treaty and the planned Nabucco natural gas pipeline can reduce their energy bills. Basically, the EU gas directive suits the interests of Russian gas consumers.

Gasunie joins $7 bln Baltic gas pipeline project

Nov. 6, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin, head of U.S.-based consulting firm East European Gas Analysis, told Kommersant daily: "Gazprom needs to obtain authorizations quicker, and the Netherlands could help speed up the process."

The Shelf Broke Up

Oct. 26, 2007. ”By choosing StatoilHydro, President Putin has manifested the balanced approach, as the first participant represents interests of importers, i.e. the EU, and the second – the exporters,” said East European Gas Analysis Director Mikhail Korchemkin.

Putin Heads to Iran, Seeking Tighter Grip on Europe's Energy

Oct. 15, 2007. "Putin is afraid his plan for control over Central Asian energy is falling apart,'' said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy. "Putin wants to get access to Iran's tap before it's even opened. His whole idea is eliminating competition from other oil and gas producers."

Unseasonal chill in Russo-Ukrainian relations

Oct. 14, 2007. "The fixed transit tariff is beneficial to Gazprom as is the low fixed ukrainian storage charge, neither of which reflects transit infrastructure costs and movements in exchange rates, let alone other European transit and storage charges."

Belarus' Lukashenko Sees a Nuclear Future

Oct. 10, 2007. "Belarus faces a much higher price of gas, so nuclear power looks quite competitive now," remarked Mikhail Korchemkin, managing director of Pennysylvania-based East European Gas Analysis. "Belarus has one of the least energy-efficient economies in the former Soviet Union. An energy-efficiency investment may be the best option for now."

Gazprom Says Deal Signed On Ukraine Gas Debt

Oct. 9, 2007. According to Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis, in the past, the price Gazprom paid RosUkrEnergo for gas stored in Ukraine and destined for Eastern Europe was almost the same as the price Gazprom charged its Eastern European customers.

Turkmenistan Backs Natural-Gas Pipelines to Break Russian Grip

Sep. 11, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin, executive director at Pennsylvania-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis, said uncertainty about the size of Turkmenistan's reserves cast doubt over the new link to Russia. "I don't believe in the new pipeline," he said. Gazprom will be lucky to continue receiving the same level of gas exports from Turkmenistan at 40-42 billion cubic meters a year, he said.

Gazprom To Cut Belarus Gas Supplies By 45%

Aug. 1, 2007. However, others said Gazprom was unnecessarily escalating the dispute, portraying Belarus as a potential liability in Europe's gas supply chain, so that it can gain E.U. support for its plan for a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany. "What Gazprom needs is a short, successful gas war," said Mikhail Korchemkin, managing director of consultancy East European Gas Analysis.

Focus on Gazprom production

July 17, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin of East European Gas Analysis Eegas told Heren Energy: "I think Ananenkov meant combined production of all deposits that Gazprom controls or plans to control. It is quite possible that Gazprom plans to take over the production of Novatek, Lukoil and other companies. In any case this plan does not competition in gas production in Russia."

Gazprom forecasts another record year of export revenues

June 29, 2007. Nevertheless, the new record is still possible, according to Korchemkin, though Gazprom would need to take away the export quota of Rosukrenergo. In 2005-2006, the Swiss broker was exporting to Europe 9 Gm3 a year, effectively reducing the export earnings of Gazprom."

Gazprom woes could hurt Putin's drive for energy dominance

June 4, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin, who heads the consulting firm East European Gas Analysis of Pennsylvania, blames Gazprom's union with the Kremlin for its underperformance. "It's mismanaged but knows where it's going," Korchemkin says. "It's a cash cow for the state."

Gazprom May Thwart Putin Drive for Russian Energy Dominance

June 4, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin, who heads Malvern, Pennsylvania-based consulting firm East European Gas Analysis, blames Gazprom's marriage with the Kremlin for its underperformance. ``It's mismanaged but knows where it's going,'' Korchemkin says. ``It's a cash cow for the state. Does anybody care about the midterm strategy? I don't think anybody thinks they'll be there so long.''

Gas sector shocks

May 30, 2007. Sir, Alexander Medvedev of Gazprom said the Russian gas monopoly does not want to face unjustifiable surprises like the allocation of pipeline capacity to an unknown ("Gazprom to press on with investments in the EU", May 23). Surprises like that are much more likely to happen in Russia. Gazprom has given gas transit capacity to unknown companies twice. In 2002, substantial pipeline capacity for the transit of Turkmen gas was allocated to an unknown Eural Trans Gas of Hungary. In 2005, the Hungarian broker was replaced by Rosukrenergo, a Swiss-registered intermediary.

Nothing Ventured, Nothing Gained

May 21, 2007. “Alexander Lukashenka still has ‘the Mitvol move’, or ‘the Sakhalin method’, for restraining prices on Russian gas,” said Mikhail Korchemkin of East European Gas Analysis. “Since the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline was built less than four years ago, and there may be easily discovered the violations of nature-protection and construction laws, the multi-billion fines can be settled by nationalizing the pipeline."

Gazprom says it intends to be the world's biggest company by 2017

Apr. 10, 2007. But according to Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis in Malvern, Pennsylvania, which analyzes production and pipeline projects in the former Soviet Union, delays at Shtokman make it unlikely the field will be producing LNG by 2014.

Gazprom Seeking $1 Trillion Value, Double Exxon's

Apr. 9, 2007. The delays at Shtokman make it unlikely the field will be producing LNG by 2014, said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of Malvern, Pennsylvania-based East European Gas Analysis, which analyzes production and pipeline projects in the former Soviet Union. A more likely start date would be 2016 or 2017, he said.

Lukashenko may use "Sakhalin scenario" in oil conflict with Moscow

Jan. 10, 2007. "Lukashenko might resort to a powerful measure, the so-called Mitvol scenario," said analyst Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis. "The Belarusian sector of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which is owned by Gazprom, was built in 2003. I am sure a lot of violations of Belarusian environmental laws could be found there."

Publications of 2005-2006