Gazprom pipelines and export capacity

Газопроводы Газпрома и экспортные мощности

Gas pipelines of West Siberia

Газопроводы Западной Сибири

Export flows of Gazprom

Экспортные потоки

Spot, Gazprom, Brent

Цены на нефть и газ

End-use price of gas

Russia and USA

Daily gas production

Суточная добыча


Will Russia Decide to Start Gas War with Europe?


Looking from the commercial standpoint, a new gas war does not make any sense. Especially, while Gazprom desperately needs cash for its Power of Siberia pipeline to China, as well as for the South Stream project.

On the other hand, Kremlin's decisions on the Russian gas policy are always far from being commercially motivated. For instance, Gazprom wants to invest over $60 Billion into the South Stream project and its feeding pipelines that would bypass Ukraine and eventually close the Ukrainian gas market that annually generates $12-$15 Billion of Gazprom revenue.

With the winter getting closer, Gazprom has already started to play stick-and-carrot game with East European member-states of the EU. During the period of maintenance works at the Yamal-Europe pipeline in mid-September, Gazprom showed a stick to Poland refusing to increase daily flows of gas through other pipelines. A bit later, Gazprom gave a carrot to Hungary for halting the reverse flows to Ukraine.

The decision to turn off the gas tap depends on the mood of Vladimir Putin, which in turn depends on Ukraine's willingness to bend to Russia's will. In any case, the European gas front will be anything but quiet.

Mikhail Korchemkin

East European Gas Analysis

Malvern, PA, USA

 

September 29, 2014

 

Polish version of this comment is published by the Polish Institute of International Affairs. English version first appeared in Natural Gas Europe.

 

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Last modified: 12/07/14                    East European Gas Analysis 2006-2014                                           Email: info@eegas.com
Reproduction or use of materials is allowed only with reference to East European Gas Analysis or www.eegas.com