Russia's row with Ukraine over gas supplies |
|
Jan. 6, 2009. The Balkan pipeline
is more vulnerable to the cuts of Russian supplies because there are no gas
storage facilities at the inlet of the export route. Pipelines running from
Ukraine into Slovakia are linked to the huge underground gas storage facilities
of Western Ukraine, therefore supplies are more secure. |
Ukraine holds firm in Russia gas debt dispute |
|
Dec. 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin,
of East European Gas Analysis, a consultancy, said there was “no cause for
alarm”. European stocks are unusually high after a late start to the winter and
a decline in demand as economies shrink. |
Future Fees May
Solve Kiev Gas-Debt Puzzle |
|
Dec. 29, 2008. He said a possible
cut by Gazprom wouldn't affect Ukrainian consumers until at least Jan. 10. After
that date, Ukraine might start siphoning off 15 percent of the gas headed for
the EU -- or 50 million cubic meters per day -- to meet its gas from Gazprom's
exports to the EU. |
Gazprom ups investment 12% |
|
Dec.
22, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin <..>
believes that Gazprom needs to rationalise its pipeline investment plans. He
questions the need for projects outside Russia, like the North and South Stream
pipelines as well as the need for some new Russian trunklines, particularly
Bovanenkoye-Ukhta. |
Focus on Gazprom storage |
|
Oct. 31, 2008. Korchemkin pointed
out that in talking about market prices, Putin appeared to refer only to the
European market. <..> If you look at last year’s ‘netback equivalent’ from the
UK border – not the German border – then the difference between that and Russian
domestic prices becomes much less significant. |
Rosukrenergo removed under new deal |
|
Oct. 31, 2008. Other important
questions regarding the latest Ukrainian-Russian agreement are those of
Ukrainian transit and gas storage charges. Nothing at all has been said about
Ukrainian storage charges. |
Russia
Pumps Gas Prices |
|
Oct. 22, 2008. In the view of East
European Gas Analysis head, Mikhail Korchemkin, announcing a gas OPEC is a sign
of Gazprom’s panic reaction to falling oil prices. |
Russian output threatened by credit squeeze |
|
Oct. 16, 2008. However he saw the
biggest danger for Gazprom not in a lack of managerial experience of crises, but
because the company had “stopped maintaining profit maximisation as its goal and
has instead turned into a ministry. Unlike a normal stock company, a ministry
always chooses the most expensive plan and often puts political interests before
economic ones. |
Putin believes the price of gas in West Siberia
should depend on the price of fuel oil in Rotterdam |
|
Oct. 10, 2008. In my view, it is the
same as the price of sweet water at the shore of Lake Baikal depending on the
price of bottled water in the middle of Sahara Desert. |
Gazprom
Breaks Price Records |
|
Oct. 2, 2008. By mid-September, the
RAR price for gasoil fell 42 percent and oil fuel dropped 58 percent vs. the
July maximum, said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. In view of the above, Korchemkin
forecasted the gas prices to sink to $350/ths cu meters in the second quarter of
2009. |
Russia, South Korea
sign $100 billion gas package |
|
Sep. 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin,
director of East European Gas Analysis, said South Korea will receive gas
produced by the Sakhalin-1 project. |
Europe Looks around Russia for Gas |
|
Sep. 15, 2008. As Mikhail Korchemkin
of East European Gas Analysis told Kommersant, everyone consciously did not
mention Russia and the preliminary agreements between Azerbaijan and Russia on
the purchase of all free volumes of export gas by Gazprom at European prices. |
Analysis: Foreign investment in Russia amid BP-TNK
dispute |
|
Aug. 22, 2008. The government of the
Russian Federation has been continually raising domestic gas prices and European
prices are very high, so Gazprom has enough cash to finance necessary production
and pipeline investment. |
Gas Master |
|
Aug. 19, 2008. "Gazprom wants to
drain the EU projects of gas." Korchemkin said Russia is also aggressively
lobbying Turkmenistan, another prospective source of gas for the West. Russia
did not try to stop a recent supply agreement between Turkmenistan and China. |
Gazprom Found an Underwater Lobbyist |
|
Aug. 18, 2008. According to East
European Gas Analysis director Mikhail Korchemkin, Gazprom shouldn’t have
announced the time frames of the start of supplies before getting the permits
with the Baltic states trying to show the officials that “nothing depends on
them”. |
South
Stream gas project price jumps |
|
July 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin
<..> expects South Stream’s cost estimates to be revised upwards repeatedly in
the future. He added that Nabucco, a rival gas pipeline project, would be 30-40
percent cheaper, meaning that gas transportation costs would also be lower
compared to South Stream, which could persuade Azerbaijan to opt for Nabucco. |
New mechanism needed to reflect gas supply and demand |
|
July 26, 2008. The solution to
Mikhail Korchemkin’s letter “EU gas paradox” (July 19/20) is that prices in
long-term continental European gas contracts are set and indexed mostly to
prices of oil products – with a lag of up to nine months. <..> Traditional
contractual indexation of gas prices to oil prices has outlived the market
conditions for which it was designed and should be replaced. |
EU gas paradox |
|
July 19, 2008. Sir, BP’s latest
Statistical Report shows a striking difference in natural gas prices in the EU,
UK, USA, Canada and Japan. The EU has the highest price. On the other hand,
Gazprom’s report says European supply exceeds demand and this is likely to
continue in the future. So we have a situation in Europe where oversupply is
leading to price growth! That is the "EU paradox". |
Medvedev Aims at Caspian Gas Lockup as Europe Seeks Supplies |
Bloomberg.com |
July 3, 2008. "It's Putin's plan
that all the gas from this part of the world should be sold by Gazprom,''
Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consulting firm
in Malvern, Pennsylvania, said by telephone. |
Turkey and UK buck trend of lower demand for
Russian gas |
|
June 27, 2008. In terms of Euros,
Gazprom’s average European export price in 2007 dropped by about 10% between
2006 and 2007. |
Gazprom to Narrow Streams |
|
May 23, 2008. “Gazprom will be able
to own shares in Latvijas Gaze, Lietuvos Dujos and Eesti Gaas, but it won’t be
represented in the BODs of those companies,” said East European Gas Analysis
Director Mikhail Korchemkin. |
EGM Comments |
|
Apr. 30, 2008. One of the reasons
suggested to explain Gazprom’s preference for intermediaries has been to avoid
export duty (30% tax). Yet Gazprom has already proved it does not need to use
intermediary companies to achieve this, where its subsidiary ZMB (owned by
Gazprom Germania) currently buys gas at the Turkmen border and sells it to
Georgia, Mikhail Korchemkin of consultancy EEG points out. |
Prodi may be
offered top job in South Stream |
|
Apr. 28, 2008. He foresees problems
with environmental permits for the pipeline in the offshore economic zone of the
Black Sea countries. According to Korchemkin, Viktor Chernomyrdin, former head
of Gazprom and now Russia's ambassador to Ukraine, would make the best head of
South Stream. |
Russia
Takes a Charter to Iran |
|
Apr. 21, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin,
director of the U.S. firm East European Gas Analysis thinks that the formation
of a “gas OPEC” and cartel price control would push EU consumers to refuse
natural gas and turn to alternative fuels. |
Gazprom Hints at
New Strategy for Pipeline |
|
Apr. 17, 2008. Korchemkin
explains, there are different advantages to both Austria's and Slovenia's
participation in the project. Going through Slovenia is the shortest route to
Northern Italy, but the Baumgarten hub in Austria would allow for greater
flexibility as it connects with 2 other pipelines to Germany and Italy. |
Central Asia Unwilling to Be Left Out |
|
Apr. 15, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin
<..> believes that Nabucco plus a submarine gas pipeline between Turkmenistan
and Azerbaijan (200 kilometers long and worth $900 million) will be much more
economically profitable for Turkmenistan than participating in the Pre-Caspian
Gas Pipeline project (with Gazprom). |
Austria Is Out
of South Stream |
|
Apr. 14, 2008. Within a few days,
it became known that the monopoly was refusing to sell gas to traders who had
reserved capacity on the Trans-Austrian gas pipeline, Korchemkin said. |
Gazprom May End
Year as No. 2 Earner |
|
Apr. 11, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin,
a director at U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis, said Gazprom's
high profitability came despite its low cost efficiency. |
Gazprom to invest
$15 billion in LNG project |
|
Mar. 26, 2008. "The U.S. will buy
as much Russian gas as Gazprom offers. Even if the Russian monopoly exports 65
billion cubic meters a year, it will only account for 10% of the U.S. market. I
do not see any problem with exports to the U.S. On the contrary, American
importers will welcome the diversification of supplies,"
he said. |
Tymoshenko's Victory
over Gazprom to Cost Much to Ukraine |
|
Mar. 14, 2008. According to East
European Gas Analysis Director Mikhail Korchemkin, Tymoshenko has won that gas
battle of Russia and Ukraine, but “the whole war is ahead,” it will be for 2009
contracts. Gazprom has simply secured the normal transit via Ukraine till the
end of this year and the record profits from the exports to Europe, the analyst
explained. |
Ukraine, Gazprom
Settle Price Feud |
|
Mar. 14, 2008. Ukraine could enjoy
a discount of up to 30 percent on average European prices because it imports
proportionally more of its gas in summertime than any other European country,
Korchemkin said. |
DJ FOCUS: More Russia-Ukraine Gas Conflicts Almost Certain |
|
Mar.
7, 2008.
"The disputes are likely to continue until Ukraine is able to buy Turkmen gas
from Turkmenistan without the brokerage service of Gazprom. Then Gazprom will be
out of the Ukrainian market, too," said Mikhail Korchemkin from U.S.-based East
European Gas Analysis. |
Gazprom Restores
Gas to Ukraine |
|
Mar. 6, 2008. "Gazprom has
apparently agreed to consider the 1.9 billion cubic meters of gas sold to
Ukraine in January as originating in Turkmenistan," Mikhail Korchemkin,
executive director at Pennsylvania-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis,
said in e-mailed comments. |
Gazprom Cuts
Flow Of Gas to Ukraine |
|
Mar. 4, 2008. Korchemkin, the
U.S.-based gas consultant, said the dispute boiled down to who should control
the gas in Ukrainian storage facilities. "There is no politics in this
conflict," Korchemkin. "It is strictly business." |
Gazprom's, ENI's South Stream pipeline could be in trouble - report |
|
Feb. 29, 2008. Quoting analyst
Mikhail Korchemkin, the paper said Russia had neglected to consult countries
along the sea route, adding Ukraine could gain leverage from its position along
the route in the current dispute with Moscow over unpaid debts to Gazprom. |
Gazprom's, ENI's South Stream
pipeline could be in trouble |
|
Feb. 29, 2008. Kommersant said
while planning for the land route appears to be going well, the section that
will have to pass through Ukraine's economic zone in the Black Sea could be more
problematic. Quoting analyst Mikhail Korchemkin, the paper said Russia had
neglected to consult countries along the sea route, adding Ukraine could gain
leverage from its position along the route in the current dispute with Moscow
over unpaid debts to Gazprom. |
Russian paper predicts
trouble for South Stream pipeline |
|
Feb. 29, 2008. Kommersant said
that while planning for the land route appears to be going well, the going could
be less easy for the section that will have to pass through Ukraine's economic
zone in the Black Sea. Quoting an analyst, Mikhail Korchemkin, the paper said
Russia had neglected to consult countries along the sea route. |
South Stream gains two new partners |
|
Feb. 29, 2008. Ukraine has a real
chance to slow down the South Stream project since South Stream's route crosses
the continental shelf of Ukraine, according to Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Kiev could obstruct
South Stream project |
|
Feb. 29, 2008. Russian gas giant
Gazprom is repeating the mistakes it made in the Nord Stream project <..>, says
Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "First, the gas monopoly signs agreements with
importers and announces the gas pipeline construction, and then it applies to a
transit country it has offended for a permit to conduct operations in its
exclusive economic zone. Nearly the entire South Stream route is on the
continental shelf of Ukraine, and a part of it runs through the Romanian shelf,"
he said. |
Ukrainian intermediaries to be abolished |
|
Feb. 15, 2008. EEGAS's Korchemkin
confirmed to Heren Energy that supplies of Uzbek gas delivered to Ukraine had
fallen dramatically during a harsh winter in the central Asian republic.
Deliveries fell from 30 Mm3/d to 16 Mm3/d in December and to nominal amounts in
January. |
Ukraine Stored Natural-Gas Supplies Can Last More Than a Month |
Bloomberg.com |
Feb. 12, 2008. Ukraine's daily gas
demand is about 300 million cubic meters, Pennsylvania-based consultant Mikhail
Korchemkin, executive director of East European Gas Analysis, said in an e-mail.
Ten billion cubic meters of gas "can cover the total Ukrainian demand for about
five weeks," he said. |
Ukraine's Naftogaz to demand massive hike in
transit cost |
|
Jan. 31, 2008. Korchemkin told
Heren Energy the proposed hike was unrealistic. <..> Korchemkin suggested
Ukraine should focus on increasing the storage tariff: "Naftogaz should cancel
the leases agreement with RosUkrEnergo and introduce a normal storage fee so
that Gazprom pays for the storage rather than Ukrainian consumers. Basically
Ukrainian storage is the equivalent of two pipelines running from Siberia
through Ukraine to Europe and has saved Gazprom a huge investment - at current
prices the equivalent of $40 billion plus operating costs." |
Focus on Nabucco and South Stream |
|
Jan. 31, 2008. Korchemkin <..>
said that although Gazprom had got a good deal, the publicity around it would
not help negotiations for the next crucial link through Hungary. "They overdid
the publicity, when a quiet deal would have been better for negotiations for the
next link. Hungary is now in a much better bargaining position, because now they
know the route and the value of the Hungarian section for Gazprom." |
Turkmenistan cuts exports causing domino effect
in region |
|
Jan. 15, 2008. The increase in
[Gazprom] exports has been achieved by reducing supplies to consumers in
Southern Russia, Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis told
Heren Energy. This would contradict Russia's Gas Law, which sets the
priority of domestic supplies over exports, Korchemkin said. |
Gazprom/Ukraine deal eases European supply fears |
|
Dec. 18, 2007.
Korchemkin also said European users would not be affected by
rising Ukrainian transit tariffs, but could actually benefit from them in the
long term: "An increase in transit costs charged by Ukraine would
benefit European security of supply, because it will allow Ukraine to invest
more in pipeline infrastructure." |
EU gas directive will be good for Russian consumers |
|
Nov. 22, 2007. The higher the
price in the European Union, the higher it gets for the Russian consumers. It
will not be long before Russian businesses and households realise that
competition, unbundling, the Energy Charter Treaty and the planned Nabucco
natural gas pipeline can reduce their energy bills. Basically, the EU gas
directive suits the interests of Russian gas consumers. |
Gasunie joins $7 bln
Baltic gas pipeline project |
|
Nov. 6, 2007. Mikhail
Korchemkin, head of U.S.-based consulting firm East European Gas Analysis, told Kommersant daily: "Gazprom needs to obtain authorizations quicker, and the
Netherlands could help speed up the process." |
The
Shelf Broke Up |
|
Oct. 26, 2007. ”By choosing StatoilHydro, President Putin has manifested the balanced approach, as the first
participant represents interests of importers, i.e. the EU, and the second – the
exporters,” said East European Gas Analysis Director Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Putin Heads to Iran, Seeking Tighter Grip on Europe's Energy |
Bloomberg.com |
Oct. 15, 2007.
"Putin is afraid his plan for control over Central
Asian energy is falling apart,'' said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East
European Gas Analysis consultancy. "Putin wants to get
access to Iran's tap before it's even opened. His whole idea is eliminating
competition from other oil and gas producers." |
Unseasonal chill in Russo-Ukrainian relations |
|
Oct. 14, 2007.
"The fixed transit tariff is beneficial to Gazprom as is the
low fixed ukrainian storage charge, neither of which reflects transit
infrastructure costs and movements in exchange rates, let alone other European
transit and storage charges." |
Belarus' Lukashenko Sees a Nuclear
Future |
|
Oct. 10, 2007.
"Belarus faces a much higher price of gas, so nuclear power looks quite
competitive now," remarked Mikhail Korchemkin, managing director of
Pennysylvania-based East European Gas Analysis. "Belarus has one of the least
energy-efficient economies in the former Soviet Union. An energy-efficiency
investment may be the best option for now." |
Gazprom Says Deal Signed On Ukraine Gas Debt |
|
Oct.
9, 2007.
According to Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis, in the past,
the price Gazprom paid RosUkrEnergo for gas stored in Ukraine and destined for
Eastern Europe was almost the same as the price Gazprom charged its Eastern
European customers. |
Turkmenistan Backs Natural-Gas Pipelines to Break Russian Grip |
Bloomberg.com |
Sep. 11, 2007. Mikhail
Korchemkin, executive director at Pennsylvania-based consultancy East European
Gas Analysis, said uncertainty about the size of Turkmenistan's reserves cast
doubt over the new link to Russia. "I don't believe in the new pipeline," he
said. Gazprom will be lucky to continue receiving the same level of gas exports
from Turkmenistan at 40-42 billion cubic meters a year, he said. |
Gazprom To Cut Belarus Gas Supplies By 45% |
|
Aug. 1, 2007. However, others
said Gazprom was unnecessarily escalating the dispute, portraying Belarus as a
potential liability in Europe's gas supply chain, so that it can gain E.U.
support for its plan for a pipeline under the Baltic Sea to Germany. "What
Gazprom needs is a short, successful gas war," said Mikhail Korchemkin, managing
director of consultancy East European Gas Analysis. |
Focus on Gazprom production |
|
July 17, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin
of East European Gas Analysis Eegas told Heren Energy: "I think Ananenkov meant
combined production of all deposits that Gazprom controls or plans to control.
It is quite possible that Gazprom plans to take over the production of Novatek,
Lukoil and other companies. In any case this plan does not competition in gas
production in Russia." |
Gazprom forecasts another record year of export
revenues |
|
June 29, 2007. Nevertheless, the
new record is still possible, according to Korchemkin, though Gazprom would need
to take away the export quota of Rosukrenergo. In 2005-2006, the Swiss broker
was exporting to Europe 9 Gm3 a year, effectively reducing the export earnings
of Gazprom." |
Gazprom
woes could hurt Putin's drive for energy dominance |
|
June 4, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin,
who heads the consulting firm East European Gas Analysis of Pennsylvania, blames
Gazprom's union with the Kremlin for its underperformance. "It's mismanaged but
knows where it's going," Korchemkin says. "It's a cash cow for the state." |
Gazprom May Thwart Putin Drive for Russian Energy Dominance |
Bloomberg.com |
June 4, 2007. Mikhail Korchemkin,
who heads Malvern, Pennsylvania-based consulting firm East European Gas
Analysis, blames Gazprom's marriage with the Kremlin for its underperformance.
``It's mismanaged but knows where it's going,'' Korchemkin says. ``It's a cash
cow for the state. Does anybody care about the midterm strategy? I don't think
anybody thinks they'll be there so long.'' |
Gas sector shocks |
|
May 30, 2007. Sir, Alexander
Medvedev of Gazprom said the Russian gas monopoly does not want to face
unjustifiable surprises like the allocation of pipeline capacity to an unknown
("Gazprom to press on with investments in the EU", May 23). Surprises like that
are much more likely to happen in Russia. Gazprom has given gas transit capacity
to unknown companies twice. In 2002, substantial pipeline capacity for the
transit of Turkmen gas was allocated to an unknown Eural Trans Gas of Hungary.
In 2005, the Hungarian broker was replaced by Rosukrenergo, a Swiss-registered
intermediary. |
Nothing
Ventured, Nothing Gained |
|
May 21, 2007. “Alexander
Lukashenka still has ‘the Mitvol move’, or ‘the Sakhalin method’, for
restraining prices on Russian gas,” said Mikhail Korchemkin of East European Gas
Analysis. “Since the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline was built less than four years
ago, and there may be easily discovered the violations of nature-protection and
construction laws, the multi-billion fines can be settled by nationalizing the
pipeline." |
Gazprom says it intends to be the world's biggest company by 2017 |
|
Apr. 10, 2007. But according to
Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis in Malvern,
Pennsylvania, which analyzes production and pipeline projects in the former
Soviet Union, delays at Shtokman make it unlikely the field will be producing
LNG by 2014. |
Gazprom Seeking $1 Trillion Value, Double Exxon's |
Bloomberg.com |
Apr. 9, 2007. The delays at
Shtokman make it unlikely the field will be producing LNG by 2014, said Mikhail
Korchemkin, director of Malvern, Pennsylvania-based East European Gas Analysis,
which analyzes production and pipeline projects in the former Soviet Union. A
more likely start date would be 2016 or 2017, he said. |
Lukashenko may use "Sakhalin scenario" in oil conflict with Moscow |
|
Jan. 10, 2007. "Lukashenko
might resort to a powerful measure, the so-called Mitvol scenario," said analyst
Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis. "The Belarusian sector of
the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which is owned by Gazprom, was built in 2003. I
am sure a lot of violations of Belarusian environmental laws could be found
there." |
Publications
of 2005-2006 |
|
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