|
In H2-2009, the average price
of European exports of Gazprom is likely to drop below $180/mcm
According to our estimations,
the 2009 gas sales of Gazprom (excluding LNG sales of the Sakhalin-2
project) are likely to be at $72 billion, or $30 billion below the record of
2008. In the second half of 2009, the average price of European exports of
Gazprom is expected at $170-180/mcm (mcm = thousand cubic meters), at the
level of H1-2005.
Projection of Gas Sales of Gazprom in 2008-2009
|
|
2008 |
2008 |
2008 |
2008 |
2009 |
2009 |
2009 |
2009 |
|
|
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
Volumes, bcm:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Russia
|
105
|
55 |
49 |
92 |
101 |
51 |
46 |
94 |
FSU
|
25
|
25 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
17 |
23 |
|
Europe and Turkey
(1) |
54 |
46 |
35 |
36 |
41 |
38 |
36 |
38 |
|
Total: |
184 |
126 |
105 |
150 |
163 |
109 |
99 |
154 |
|
Average
price per mcm: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Russia, RUR |
1652 |
1655 |
1655 |
1655 |
1738 |
1859 |
1990 |
2113 |
|
Russia, USD |
69 |
70 |
68 |
59 |
58 |
60 |
62 |
64 |
|
FSU, USD |
151 |
148 |
148 |
148 |
300 |
200 |
150 |
150 |
|
Europe and Turkey,
USD (1) |
346 |
390 |
412 |
500 |
384 |
250 |
179 |
175 |
|
Gross
revenue, USD billion |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Russia, net of VAT |
7.2 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
3.1 |
2.9 |
6.0 |
|
FSU |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
6.4 |
3.9 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
|
Europe and Turkey |
18.5 |
18.0 |
14.3 |
18.0 |
15.8 |
9.6 |
6.4 |
6.6 |
|
Total: |
29.5 |
25.5 |
20.8 |
26.7 |
28.0 |
16.6 |
11.8 |
16.0 |
|
Average price of
Brent crue, $/bbl |
97 |
121 |
114 |
55 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
45 |
|
Average rate
RUR/USD |
24.04 |
23.61 |
24.42 |
27.84 |
30.00 |
31.00 |
32.00 |
33.00 |
Data for Q3-Q4-2008 and
2009 are estimations of East European Gas Analysis.
(1) Note that LNG sales
of the Sakhalin-2 project are not shown in the table.
The dollar revenue of Gazprom
depends on the speed of devaluation of the ruble. Despite the planned growth
of the ruble price of gas for Russian consumers, the dollar price is likely
to stay below the record level of Q2-2008. In US dollars, the 2009 gas sales
in Russia are expected to drop by 10% because of the weaker ruble and lower
demand. Note that in 1998-1999, while the price in rubles was fixed, the
dollar revenue from domestic sales of Gazprom has lost three-quarters, same
as the value of the ruble against US dollar.
The 2009 revenue from gas sales
to Europe and Turkey is expected to drop by 40-45% because of the
simultaneous decrease of the price and demand. FSU will be the only market
showing the growth of revenue.
Gazprom's Revenue from Gas Sales to Europe & Turkey by Quarter, USD billion
In general, the 2009 gas sales'
revenue will be at the level of 2007, a very successful year of Gazprom. The
drop will be not catastrophic if the Russian gas monopoly cuts its huge
investment program and reduces its pipeline construction and field
development costs to realistic levels. Currently, pipeline construction
costs of Gazprom per 1 km are 2-3 times higher than the costs of other
companies. Without the cost reduction, Russian gas consumers will get
additional increase of gas price, which in turn will extend the period of
the economic crisis in Russia.
Mikhail Korchemkin
January 4,
2009
|
