Gazprom pipelines and export capacity

Газопроводы Газпрома и экспортные мощности

Gas pipelines of West Siberia

Газопроводы Западной Сибири

Export flows of Gazprom

Экспортные потоки

Spot, Gazprom, Brent

Цены на нефть и газ

End-use price of gas

Russia and USA

Daily gas production

Суточная добыча


Russian-Ukrainian Gas Dispute


Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines would have been unable to help Eastern Europe

"If we'd had Nord Stream and South Stream, the Russia-Ukraine dispute would not have been a problem - as long as you take the view that this was Ukraine's fault," said Jonathan Stern, director of gas research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

The Wall Street Journal, January 10, 2009

 

I believe numbers can explain this problem better than words. Table 1 shows the daily export flows of Russian gas supplying the record low European demand of early January 2009.

Table 1. Daily export flows of Russian gas at the level of 01.01.2009, mmcm

 Gas export route or destination

N0

N1

N2

N2+S

 Ukraine
299

211

123

18

 Belarus (1)
117

117

117

117

 Finland

16

16

16

16

 Blue Stream (1)

48

48

48

48

 Nord Stream

-

88

176

176

 South Stream

-

-

-

105

 TOTAL:

480

480

480

480

(1) Daily flows reported by Kommersant.

N0 = current situation; N1 = 1st line of Nord Stream commissioned;

N2 = 2d line of Nord Stream completed;

N2+S = Nord Stream and South Stream completed.

In case of all new export projects of Gazprom completed, Ukraine would still had to ship 18 million cubic meters (mmcm) of Russian gas to Europe daily. This is more that the alleged Ukrainian siphoning of 14 mmcm/day mentioned by Vladimir Putin. Countries like Slovakia (imports 12 mmcm/d), Czech Republic (15 mmcm/d) and Romania (10 mmcm/d) would still be at risk.

Table 2 gives the daily export flows of Russian gas at the level of January 2008 (570 mmcm/d) and January 2020 (780 mmcm/d).

Table 2. Daily export flows of Russian gas at the level of January 2008 and January 2020, mmcm

  Gas export route or destination

N0

N1

N2

N2+S

MAX

 Ukraine
388

300

212

107

300

 Belarus
117

117

117

117

128

 Finland

17

17

17

17

18

 Blue Stream

48

48

48

48

53

 Nord Stream

-

88

176

176

176

 South Stream

-

-

-

105

105

 TOTAL:

570

570

570

570

780

N0 = current situation; N1 = 1st line of Nord Stream commissioned;

N2 = 2d line of Nord Stream completed;

N2+S = Nord Stream and South Stream completed;

MAX = Gazprom scenario for 2020 (see our comment of Jan-5-2009).

If the European demand is back at the level of January 2008 and all Gazprom's projects are completed, then the countries of Eastern and Central Europe would be still at risk. The Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines can increase the security of supply of gas to Germany and Bulgaria only. If everything goes in accordance with the plans of Gazprom, then in January 2020, Ukraine would still be shipping to Europe exactly the same volume of Russian gas as at the start of current crisis.

In my view, the Nord Stream project represents a big risk to the energy security of Poland. If Polish government takes a decision that Russia considers wrong, there is no doubt that the gas flow to Poland would be stopped. Having the Nord Stream pipeline, Gazprom would be able to do it without reducing exports to Germany. The "safe" cutoff of Poland may be the main idea of the Nord Stream project (see our comment of Jan-5-2009).

The strategy of bypassing Ukraine is counterproductive and leads to enormous investment costs. Please note that the South Stream project alone, without the feeding lines running from the Yamal peninsula, is nearly twice more expensive than the Nabucco pipeline. The transportation cost of gas via the South Stream pipeline is much higher than the cost of transit via Ukraine. Every new export pipeline means higher operating costs and lower profits of Gazprom.

Mikhail Korchemkin

January 12, 2009


Last modified: 12/07/14                    East European Gas Analysis 2006-2014                                           Email: info@eegas.com
Reproduction or use of materials is allowed only with reference to East European Gas Analysis or www.eegas.com