After the cancelation of restrictions
on access to the OPAL pipeline, Gazprom ships steady daily volumes
of about 167 million cubic meters (mmcm) via Nord Stream with the
OPAL flow to Czech Republic varying from 80 to 100 mmcm/day. Gazprom
uses the Ukrainian routes to Slovakia and Poland for more flexible
supplies in accordance with the consumers' demand.
Apparently, the demand for more
expensive peak-load gas in North-Western Europe (and Germany,
specifically) is met by other than Nord Stream sources. Note that
storage injection in Germany continued to the end of October.
Cost calculations of Gazprom indicate
that the company plans to use same flat pattern for the daily
supplies of gas via Nord Stream 2.
It is unclear who would provide winter
peak-load gas to Central Europe if Gazprom diverts the gas flows
from Ukraine to Nord Stream 2. It is also unclear where the
excessive volumes of summer gas would go and if NW Europe needs that
much base-load gas.
Change of the flow pattern in
accordance with the seasonal demand would affect the cost of supply
and reduce Gazprom profit.
European Gas Analysis
January 21, 2018
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