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Gazprom has
achieved record daily export volume of 550 mmcm (Europe including Turkey and
excluding the former Soviet states). However, on the record day of December 13,
2012, most gas pipelines crossing the Eastern borders of the EU had substantial spare
capacity. According to European operators, full load was reported only at the
Yamal-Europe (Belorussia-Poland) and Komarno-Drozdowicze (Ukraine-Poland)
pipelines1. The major export corridor via Slovakia was utilized by
71% and the Kobrin-Brest-Warsaw pipeline by 59%. Nord Stream was loaded at about one-third of
its design capacity.
The total technical spare
capacity of export pipelines exceeds the record
level of Russian gas exports by over 200 mmcmd. This is more than the
design capacity of the
South Stream project. By 2018, Gazprom plans to have spare capacity
of the size of over two South Stream projects. On top of that,
Gazprom wants to build
two more links of the Nord Stream pipeline and
expand the Belorussian export corridor.
By the end of this decade, the total
capacity of export pipelines of Gazprom is to reach 318 bcma
(without Belorussian expansion and Nord Stream 3 and 4), while
contracts guarantee sales of 158 bcma.
As a result, most of the existing gas pipelines of Eastern Europe will
be either underutilized or abandoned. Transit pipelines of Slovakia,
Hungary and Romania are unlikely to have any flow of Russian gas. Technically,
these pipelines could be used for the transit of gas from
Azerbaijan and Central Asia, but it is impossible now because of the
ban of international gas transit through the Russian territory.
Therefore, Russia's proposal to exempt European
sections of Nord Stream and South Stream pipelines from the rules of
the Third Energy Package means Gazprom wants to block the access of
Caspian gas to both "old" and "new" transit pipelines of Eastern and
Central Europe.
1
- We were unable to find out the daily flow to
Finland.
Mikhail Korchemkin
East European Gas
Analysis
Malvern, PA, USA
December
24, 2012
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Analysis or www.eegas.com
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