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At
a
press conference after the signing of the South Stream agreement
with Bulgaria, Vladimir Putin gave
two
interesting numbers.
First, Russia's prime
minister put Bulgaria's revenue from Russian gas transit at "600
million euro or dollars". Apparently, this is a mistake. This year,
Gazprom will ship through Bulgaria about 11 bcm of Russian gas and
pay some $65-85 million for the transit services. Note that Gazprom
paid Ukraine about $2.0 billion for the transit of 92.8 bcm of
Russian gas to Europe in 2009.
The second number is
more interesting. According to Vladimir Putin, "Bulgaria will
get almost 2.5 billion merely for the pipeline crossing through it". Bulgarian Prime
Minister Boyko Borisov confirmed the number, though both premiers
did not say whether it was in euro of dollars.
If the sum is in
dollars, then the transit tariff at the Bulgarian section of South
Stream will be about $7.50/mcm per 100 km, or three times the
current Ukrainian tariff. If Putin and Borisov meant euro, then
the Bulgarian tariff will be four times higher than the one of
Ukraine.
For the sake of
comparison, this year Gazprom will pay Ukraine about $3.2 billion
for the transit of some 100 bcm of Russian gas to Europe. Gas
transportation distance in Ukraine is 1240 km or twice longer than
the one of the Bulgarian section of South Stream.
Mikhail Korchemkin
East European Gas
Analysis
November 14, 2010
Malvern, PA, USA
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