Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom forecasts the average gas price for the
2015/2016 winter at
per thousand cubic meters (mcm). Today it means about $222/mcm, though Gazprom
is likely to use its own corporate exchange rate for Q4-2015 and Q1-2016.
In Q1-2015, Gazprom reported
the average price of exports out of the former Soviet Union at $284.2 and in
Q2-2015 at $255.6. Gazprom is very likely to
report the average export price below $222/mcm in Q3-2015 and below $200/mcm in
IMF estimates the Russian
Natural Gas border price in Germany in August 2015 at $6.66/MMBtu or $213/mcm.
The Federal Tariff Service (FST) index for September 2015 stands at $6.54/MMBtu
or $209/mcm. On September 15, the TTF price was reported at $6.35/MMBtu or $203/mcm
(according to the official conversion factors
used in the IFRS reports of Gazprom). There is no sign of growth capable to
affect oil- or spot-indexed price of Russian gas yet.
The average winter price may
be equal to
if Euro drops some 13% against U.S. Dollar.
East European Gas
Malvern, PA, USA
September 16, 2015
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