Turkmenistan resumes gas supplies to Russia, volumes slashed

Dec. 22, 2009. The export of every thousand cubic metres of Russian gas generates about $100 in profit for Gazprom and $90 in custom duties to the Russian budget. The more Asian/Azerbaijani gas Gazprom re-exports, the lower its profits, and the lower the revenue to the Russian state budget. The re-exporting of gas is a no-win deal for Gazprom.

Russia to Receive Turkmen Gas After Nine-Month Halt

Dec. 22, 2009. “Turkmenistan lost at least $7 billion, or about 25 percent of annual GDP” as a result of the halt, Mikhail Korchemkin <..> said in an e-mail. “Before signing a new deal, Russia needs to reimburse the loss of Turkmenistan, for instance by price discounts in Russian exports.”

Market forces push Gazprom to soften its attitude

Nov. 25, 2009. Gazprom realizes it can't push too hard, said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "If Gazprom is persistent, it could kill its client base in Europe. Many of its clients are in trouble," he said.

Will there be a new gas war?

Nov. 23, 2009. Too often decisions of Gazprom are driven by emotion, impulse and political motivation. That makes the Russian gas monopoly very unpredictable.

Russia Agrees to Warn EU of Future Gas Cuts

Nov. 17, 2009. Monday’s memorandum does little to reduce the risk of disruptions because it is ultimately up to Gazprom to decide whether to turn off the tap, said Mikhail Korchemkin.

VNG share swap?

Nov. 16, 2009. Uncertainty over the startup of the Shtokman gas field, which is expected to feed the second line of Nord Stream, may result in Gazprom only using 55% of the Nord Stream capacity. <..> This could represent a significant loss for the Russians.

SCENARIOS-Will Russia go for another damaging gas war?

Nov. 11, 2009. "The last gas war was irrational too. Leaving the market at a time of growing competition was a very stupid idea," said Korchemkin.

A New Route for Natural Gas to Europe

Nov. 6, 2009. "Nord Stream will be completed by 2012, a time when Europe won't need the additional gas because of the supply glut," said Mikhail Korchemkin, head of the Pennsylvania-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis and an outspoken critic of the project.

Gazprom sees EU fully taking contracted gas

Oct. 26, 2009. 'Gazprom is unable to supply the remaining contracted volumes because of the capacity limitations,' he said. 'To restore the Ukrainian transit volume to the levels of 2008, in Q4 2009 Gazprom would need to ship via Ukraine 600 million cubic meters per day. The record daily throughput of Ukrainian export pipelines is just 400 million cubic meters.'

Gas Tops Putin’s Deals in Beijing

Oct. 14, 2009. “Gazprom does not take into account the modern-day reality,” said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis. “The situation on the market is totally different."

Now, Where Were We?

Oct. 12, 2009. “Linking the price of gas to the one of oil is an anachronism,” argued Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. “There is an oversupply of inexpensive gas in the world, and the market prices of oil and of gas often move in opposite directions.”

Gazprom chases multi-billion-dollar compensation

Oct. 9, 2009. According to the estimates of Mikhail Korchemkin, head of the East European Gas Analysis, the “advance payment” of the three countries may amount to $2bn-$2.8bn.

Russia seeks investments in Yamal gas fields

Sep. 25, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin <..> said the foreign companies were likely to be given projects that were “small by Russian standards” and that arctic Yamal gas fields were some of the most expensive to develop in the world.

Big Oil Keeps Cool to Russian Welcome

Sep. 23, 2009. "It always depends on the price of oil," said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "If the Russian government believes the price is not high enough, they invite foreign partners. If the price goes up again, they dump them."

Putin proposes using foreigners to develop Yamal deposits

Sep. 22, 2009. The situation is similar to the Sakhalin projects, said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. When Russia needs money and technology, it invites foreign partners. But when the project is ready to yield money, investors may be forced into such unbearable conditions that they will be happy to sell their stakes, Korchemkin said.

To be or not to be

Sep. 21, 2009. Gazprom has lost nearly a third of its sales in the most lucrative market of OECD Europe, while Qatar has increased its sales in the region by 39 per cent. In my view, it will take less than a year for Gas OPEC to dissolve.

Russia finds he who pays the gas piper in Central Asia, plays the tune

Aug. 24, 2009. "I have no reason to doubt the plans of the new leadership of Turkmenistan. It has huge reserves and fulfils its pipeline plans much faster than any other country," says Korchemkin.

Europe gas demand may not accomodate rival pipelines

Aug. 18, 2009. "Considering the (European) plan I would think Russia would not be able to export more than 180-190 bcm by 2020," said Mikhail Korchemkin of East European Gas Analysis.

Russia wins Turkey pipeline deal rivalling EU plan

Aug. 5, 2009. But the routing of the pipeline through Turkish waters may tack on an additional $1.5 billion in costs to the already hefty price tag of more than an estimated $25 billion, said Mikhail Korchemkin.

Gazprom Will Ship Gas to Asia in Bid to Curb Reliance on Europe

Aug. 5, 2009. Europe will continue to pay the highest prices, making it “the most attractive gas market in the long run,” Korchemkin said.

Market conditions may delay Shtokman project

July 30, 2009. "We may see development of Shtokman delayed until 2020. <..> If you consider the cost of Shtokman, I think Gazprom is better off investing its money elsewhere."

Gazprom Sees Domestic Gas Sales Profitable in ’09

July 22, 2009. “Relatively inexpensive shale gas has significantly reduced the U.S. demand for LNG,” Mikhail Korchemkin <..> said Tuesday. “Shtokman is aimed to get a piece of the U.S. market, but there is no free space in it."

He who pays for the pipelines calls the tune

July 16, 2009. For a start, Europe has diversified its sources of supply: cost and unreliability have led Gazprom to lose a third of its European market to imports from Norway, Qatar and Trinidad, says Mikhail Korchemkin.

Gazprom advances on Shtokman; analysts warn of delay

July 10, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, said he believes the launch could even be delayed by a decade.

Nabucco transit deal nice, but where's the gas?

July 9, 2009. "Gazprom and the countries in the <South Stream> project can move faster than a commercial project. But a money-losing project cannot run forever," Korchemkin said.

Poland Signs Deal for Gas From Qatar

June 30, 2009. In the long run, Gazprom would benefit too. The Russian behemoth has forgotten how the real market operates under the tough competition between gas producers.

Russia obtains Azeri gas in tug-of-war with Europe

June 29, 2009. "Gazprom and the Russian Federation are willing to accept a loss to spite the EU and Nabucco," said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "The more foreign gas Gazprom buys, the lower are its profits."

Gas exporters meet but group's sway still weak

June 26, 2009. Russia's Gazprom's exports to Europe dropped 39 percent in the first quarter, while Qatar exported 20 percent more than a year ago. I do not think Qatar wants to reverse that trend.

Gazprom hopes cash flow positive in tough 2009

June 25, 2009. If export sales are just slightly below expectations, Gazprom will end this year with a loss. Last time Gazprom reported a loss was in 1999, after the crash of August 1998," said Mikhail Korchemkin.

Political past may hobble Russian envoy to Kiev

June 25, 2009. Zurabov is a man with absolutely no links to Gazprom. Without emotion, he will bring to Ukraine any order of the Russian government, even the most disadvantageous to Gazprom.

Medvedev leads scramble for Africa

June 25, 2009. "I think Gazprom still wants to buy all gas produced around Europe and resell it on its own terms," said Mikhail Korchemkin.

Gazprom Exports to China Delayed Amid Price Standoff

June 17, 2009. Kovykta is the closer field to China and can supply gas at a much lower cost than proposed projects to pipe Sakhalin gas to Vladivostok and from there turn it into LNG, Korchemkin said.

Gazprom to Delay Field Due to Low Demand

June 17, 2009. Gazprom's market share in Europe and Turkey plunged from 30 percent last summer to 16 percent in the first quarter of 2009, he said, basing his calculations on an International Energy Agency report on gas consumption and trade released late Monday. "The current management of Gazprom has never worked under falling energy prices," Korchemkin said.

Gazprom Scrambles for LNG Market

June 1, 2009. A cheaper option for Gazprom to counter slumping demand would be to offer a 20 percent discount on pipeline gas to European buyers, said Mikhail Korchemkin, <..>. "It's like making a fast nickel instead of a slow dime," he said.

Turkmenistan may sue Russia for "vacuum-bomb" pipe blast

May 29, 2009. "But South Stream does not open any new markets for Turkmenistan, because Russia would remain its only consumer. Nabucco, however, opens up all of Europe," Korchemkin said.

Problems in the pipeline

May 21, 2009. "Azeri gas is too expensive to be sold domestically, so it can only be re-exported," Mikhail Korchemkin <..> wrote in an e-mail. "To re-export Azeri gas, Gazprom needs to cut down exports of Russian gas, the main source of its profit."

Gazprom Ready to Buy All Gas From Azeri Nabucco Base

May 15, 2009. “For Gazprom, buying Azeri gas for the short or long term does not make any sense,” Mikhail Korchemkin <..> said by e-mail. “Apparently the government considers spiting Nabucco a higher priority than maximizing budget revenues and profits of Gazprom.”

Ukraine hopes for economic stimulus from gas transit system overhaul

May 12, 2009. "Ukrainian manufacturers can supply both high-quality pipe and compressor equipment, but the major share of any EU loan is likely to be spent on imports of goods and services from the EU. This is a normal condition of governmental loans," believes Mikhail Korchemkin.

Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Medvedev’s New Energy Initiative

Apr. 30, 2009. Russia’s attitude toward the international transit of natural gas across its territory is the same as Joseph Stalin’s feelings about the 1929 Geneva Convention on prisoners of war, which the Soviet Union refused to join. As a matter of fact, Comrade Stalin never suggested amendments to the Geneva Convention.

Gazprom sees gas demand, output depressed for 5 yrs

Apr. 9, 2009. "Basically Gazprom is being knocked back 22 years," said Mikhail Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis, adding that the last time when Gazprom produced such low volumes was in 1987, when the Soviet Union still existed.

Pipeline blast halts Turkmen gas exports to Russia

Apr. 9, 2009. "Pipelines do not explode from low pressure. In January, Russia fully cut gas to Ukraine, but there was no explosion," Korchemkin said.

Russian March gas output collapses, oil rises

Apr. 2, 2009. Such low production levels have been unseen over the past decade, even during summer months, when Gazprom puts some wells on planned maintenance.

Gazprom's 'agent of influence' arrives in Tehran

Feb. 20, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy, said: "Schroeder as Gazprom's agent of influence will talk about export flexibility in Tehran."

Gazprom's plans for South Stream gas pipeline become more ambitious

Feb. 13, 2009. "The project cannot fly. It can become the last straw that would break Gazprom's back," argues Korchemkin.

Russia-Ukraine Gas Deal Could Bolster Nabucco Plan

Feb. 5, 2009. "Simple mathematics show Gazprom will be unable to fulfill the transit agreement with Ukraine and fill its other European pipelines at the same time," said Mikhail Korchemkin.

Putin Undermines Gazprom as Ukraine Pact Freezes Out Yushchenko

Feb. 3, 2009. “Putin’s energy doctrine is in danger,” says Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting firm in Malvern, Pennsylvania. “It doesn’t work in bad times.”

Bulgaria Bills Gazprom

Jan. 24, 2009. Some experts disagree with Mr. Medvedev, saying European importers have agreements with Gazprom, not with Ukraine. "All contracts say Gazprom has to deliver gas to a specific point west of Ukraine's border with the European Union," said Mikhail Korchemkin.

Russia-Ukraine Gas Deal Can't Guarantee Europe Supply

Jan. 22, 2009. "Shortage of gas in Ukraine's underground storage facilities can put Russian gas supplies to Europe at risk again next winter," said Korchemkin. "This is a time bomb."

Despite Deal, EU Still Awaits Flow of Russian Gas

Jan. 13, 2009. Independent gas analyst Mikhail Korchemkin, who is based in Pennsylvania, said Ukraine was right. "Russia is deliberately complicating the situation," he said in a phone interview. "They sent the gas to the wrong terminal."

Accusations Fly as Gas Fails to Flow

Jan. 13, 2009. Naftogaz needs Russian gas also coming in at the other two import terminals in order to feed the Balkan pipeline, said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the U.S.-based East European Gas Analysis consultancy.

Gazprom debt burden to speed up gas crisis end

Jan. 12, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin from Pennsylvania-based East European Gas Analysis think tank believes prices will fall as low as $180 per tcm in the third quarter and Matthew Vogel from Barclays Capital sees average Gazprom 2009 prices at $250.

ANALYSIS-Small Russian gas firms face risks in Gazprom row

Jan. 8, 2009. Korchemkin said Gazprom's production profile allowed considerable flexibility and there was no need to shut down wells. "They produce as much as markets need. In summer they produce 1.25 bcm a day, in winter up to 1.65 bcm per day. So now it is not a problem for them to reduce production by 200 mcm a day," he said.

Russia's row with Ukraine over gas supplies

Jan. 6, 2009. The Balkan pipeline is more vulnerable to the cuts of Russian supplies because there are no gas storage facilities at the inlet of the export route. Pipelines running from Ukraine into Slovakia are linked to the huge underground gas storage facilities of Western Ukraine, therefore supplies are more secure.

Ukraine holds firm in Russia gas debt dispute

Dec. 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin, of East European Gas Analysis, a consultancy, said there was “no cause for alarm”. European stocks are unusually high after a late start to the winter and a decline in demand as economies shrink.

Publications of 2007-2008