Turkmenistan resumes gas supplies to Russia, volumes slashed |
ICIS Heren |
Dec. 22, 2009. The export of every
thousand cubic metres of Russian gas generates about $100 in profit for Gazprom
and $90 in custom duties to the Russian budget. The more Asian/Azerbaijani gas
Gazprom re-exports, the lower its profits, and the lower the revenue to the
Russian state budget. The re-exporting of gas is a no-win deal for Gazprom. |
Russia to Receive Turkmen Gas After Nine-Month Halt |
Bloomberg.com |
Dec. 22, 2009. “Turkmenistan lost at
least $7 billion, or about 25 percent of annual GDP” as a result of the halt,
Mikhail Korchemkin <..> said in an e-mail. “Before signing a new deal, Russia
needs to reimburse the loss of Turkmenistan, for instance by price discounts in
Russian exports.” |
Market forces push Gazprom to soften its attitude |
AP |
Nov. 25, 2009. Gazprom realizes it
can't push too hard, said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "If Gazprom is persistent, it
could kill its client base in Europe. Many of its clients are in trouble," he
said. |
Will there be a new
gas war? |
The Moscow News |
Nov. 23, 2009. Too often decisions
of Gazprom are driven by emotion, impulse and political motivation. That makes
the Russian gas monopoly very unpredictable. |
Russia Agrees to Warn EU of Future Gas Cuts |
The Moscow Times |
Nov. 17, 2009. Monday’s memorandum
does little to reduce the risk of disruptions because it is ultimately up to
Gazprom to decide whether to turn off the tap, said Mikhail Korchemkin. |
VNG share swap? |
European Gas Markets |
Nov. 16, 2009. Uncertainty over the
startup of the Shtokman gas field, which is expected to feed the second line of
Nord Stream, may result in Gazprom only using 55% of the Nord Stream capacity.
<..> This could represent a significant loss for the Russians. |
SCENARIOS-Will Russia go for another damaging gas war? |
REUTERS |
Nov. 11, 2009.
"The last gas war was irrational too. Leaving the market at a time of growing
competition was a very stupid idea," said Korchemkin. |
A New Route
for Natural Gas to Europe |
The Wall Street Journal |
Nov. 6, 2009. "Nord Stream will be
completed by 2012, a time when Europe won't need the additional gas because of
the supply glut," said Mikhail Korchemkin, head of the Pennsylvania-based
consultancy East European Gas Analysis and an outspoken critic of the project. |
Gazprom
sees EU fully taking contracted gas |
REUTERS |
Oct. 26, 2009.
'Gazprom is unable to supply the remaining contracted volumes because of the
capacity limitations,' he said. 'To restore the Ukrainian transit volume to the
levels of 2008, in Q4 2009 Gazprom would need to ship via Ukraine 600 million
cubic meters per day. The record daily throughput of Ukrainian export pipelines
is just 400 million cubic meters.' |
Gas Tops
Putin’s Deals in Beijing |
The Moscow Times |
Oct. 14, 2009. “Gazprom does not
take into account the modern-day reality,” said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of
U.S.-based consultancy East European Gas Analysis. “The situation on the market
is totally different." |
Now, Where Were We? |
RUSSIA PROFILE.ORG |
Oct.
12, 2009. “Linking the price of gas to the one of oil is an anachronism,” argued
Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. “There is an oversupply of inexpensive gas in the
world, and the market prices of oil and of gas often move in opposite
directions.” |
Gazprom chases multi-billion-dollar compensation |
Telegraph.co.uk |
Oct. 9, 2009. According to the
estimates of Mikhail Korchemkin, head of the East European Gas Analysis, the
“advance payment” of the three countries may amount to $2bn-$2.8bn. |
Russia seeks investments in Yamal gas fields |
The Financial Times |
Sep. 25, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin
<..> said the foreign companies were likely to be given projects that were
“small by Russian standards” and that arctic Yamal gas fields were some of the
most expensive to develop in the world. |
Big Oil
Keeps Cool to Russian Welcome |
Dow Jones |
Sep. 23, 2009. "It always depends on
the price of oil," said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "If the Russian government
believes the price is not high enough, they invite foreign partners. If the
price goes up again, they dump them." |
Putin proposes using
foreigners to develop Yamal deposits |
Vedomosti |
Sep. 22, 2009. The situation is
similar to the Sakhalin projects, said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. When Russia
needs money and technology, it invites foreign partners. But when the project is
ready to yield money, investors may be forced into such unbearable conditions
that they will be happy to sell their stakes, Korchemkin said. |
To be or not to
be |
The Moscow News |
Sep. 21, 2009. Gazprom has lost
nearly a third of its sales in the most lucrative market of OECD Europe, while
Qatar has increased its sales in the region by 39 per cent. In my view, it will
take less than a year for Gas OPEC to dissolve. |
Russia finds he who pays the gas piper in Central Asia, plays the tune |
bne |
Aug. 24, 2009. "I have no reason to
doubt the plans of the new leadership of Turkmenistan. It has huge reserves and
fulfils its pipeline plans much faster than any other country," says Korchemkin. |
Europe gas demand may not accomodate rival pipelines |
REUTERS |
Aug. 18, 2009.
"Considering the (European) plan I would think Russia would not be able to
export more than 180-190 bcm by 2020," said Mikhail Korchemkin of East European
Gas Analysis. |
Russia wins Turkey pipeline deal rivalling EU plan |
REUTERS |
Aug. 5, 2009. But the routing of the
pipeline through Turkish waters may tack on an additional $1.5 billion in costs
to the already hefty price tag of more than an estimated $25 billion, said
Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Gazprom Will Ship Gas to Asia in Bid to Curb Reliance on Europe |
Bloomberg.com |
Aug. 5, 2009. Europe will continue
to pay the highest prices, making it “the most attractive gas market in the long
run,” Korchemkin said. |
Market conditions may delay Shtokman project |
European Gas Markets |
July 30, 2009. "We may see
development of Shtokman delayed until 2020. <..> If you consider the cost of
Shtokman, I think Gazprom is better off investing its money elsewhere." |
Gazprom Sees
Domestic Gas Sales Profitable in ’09 |
The Moscow Times |
July 22, 2009. “Relatively
inexpensive shale gas has significantly reduced the U.S. demand for LNG,”
Mikhail Korchemkin <..> said Tuesday. “Shtokman is aimed to get a piece of the
U.S. market, but there is no free space in it." |
He who pays for the pipelines calls the tune |
The Economist |
July 16, 2009. For a start, Europe
has diversified its sources of supply: cost and unreliability have led Gazprom
to lose a third of its European market to imports from Norway, Qatar and
Trinidad, says Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Gazprom
advances on Shtokman; analysts warn of delay |
REUTERS |
July 10, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin,
director of East European Gas Analysis, said he believes the launch could even
be delayed by a decade. |
Nabucco
transit deal nice, but where's the gas? |
REUTERS |
July 9, 2009. "Gazprom and the
countries in the <South Stream> project can move faster than a commercial
project. But a money-losing project cannot run forever," Korchemkin said. |
Poland Signs Deal
for Gas From Qatar |
Bloomberg.com |
June 30, 2009. In the long run,
Gazprom would benefit too. The Russian behemoth has forgotten how the real
market operates under the tough competition between gas producers. |
Russia
obtains Azeri gas in tug-of-war with Europe |
REUTERS |
June 29, 2009. "Gazprom and the
Russian Federation are willing to accept a loss to spite the EU and Nabucco,"
said Mikhail Korchemkin <..>. "The more foreign gas Gazprom buys, the lower are
its profits." |
Gas exporters meet but group's sway still weak |
REUTERS |
June 26, 2009. Russia's Gazprom's
exports to Europe dropped 39 percent in the first quarter, while Qatar exported
20 percent more than a year ago. I do not think Qatar wants to reverse that
trend. |
Gazprom
hopes cash flow positive in tough 2009 |
REUTERS |
June 25, 2009. If export sales are
just slightly below expectations, Gazprom will end this year with a loss. Last
time Gazprom reported a loss was in 1999, after the crash of August 1998," said
Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Political
past may hobble Russian envoy to Kiev |
REUTERS |
June 25, 2009. Zurabov is a man with
absolutely no links to Gazprom. Without emotion, he will bring to Ukraine any
order of the Russian government, even the most disadvantageous to Gazprom. |
Medvedev leads
scramble for Africa |
The Moscow News |
June 25, 2009. "I think Gazprom
still wants to buy all gas produced around Europe and resell it on its own
terms," said Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Gazprom Exports to China Delayed Amid Price Standoff |
Bloomberg.com |
June 17, 2009. Kovykta is the closer
field to China and can supply gas at a much lower cost than proposed projects to
pipe Sakhalin gas to Vladivostok and from there turn it into LNG, Korchemkin
said. |
Gazprom to
Delay Field Due to Low Demand |
The Moscow Times |
June 17, 2009. Gazprom's market
share in Europe and Turkey plunged from 30 percent last summer to 16 percent in
the first quarter of 2009, he said, basing his calculations on an International
Energy Agency report on gas consumption and trade released late Monday. "The
current management of Gazprom has never worked under falling energy prices,"
Korchemkin said. |
Gazprom
Scrambles for LNG Market |
The Moscow Times |
June 1, 2009. A cheaper option for
Gazprom to counter slumping demand would be to offer a 20 percent discount on
pipeline gas to European buyers, said Mikhail Korchemkin, <..>. "It's like
making a fast nickel instead of a slow dime," he said. |
Turkmenistan may sue Russia for "vacuum-bomb" pipe blast |
REUTERS |
May 29, 2009. "But South Stream does
not open any new markets for Turkmenistan, because Russia would remain its only
consumer. Nabucco, however, opens up all of Europe," Korchemkin said. |
Problems in the
pipeline |
The Moscow News |
May 21, 2009. "Azeri gas is too
expensive to be sold domestically, so it can only be re-exported," Mikhail
Korchemkin <..> wrote in an e-mail. "To re-export Azeri gas, Gazprom needs to
cut down exports of Russian gas, the main source of its profit." |
Gazprom Ready to Buy All Gas From Azeri Nabucco Base |
Bloomberg.com |
May 15, 2009. “For Gazprom, buying
Azeri gas for the short or long term does not make any sense,” Mikhail
Korchemkin <..> said by e-mail. “Apparently the government considers spiting
Nabucco a higher priority than maximizing budget revenues and profits of
Gazprom.” |
Ukraine hopes for economic
stimulus from gas transit system overhaul |
bne |
May 12, 2009. "Ukrainian
manufacturers can supply both high-quality pipe and compressor equipment, but
the major share of any EU loan is likely to be spent on imports of goods and
services from the EU. This is a normal condition of governmental loans,"
believes Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Russia Profile Weekly Experts Panel: Medvedev’s New Energy Initiative |
RUSSIA PROFILE.ORG |
Apr.
30, 2009. Russia’s attitude toward the international transit of natural gas
across its territory is the same as Joseph Stalin’s feelings about the 1929
Geneva Convention on prisoners of war, which the Soviet Union refused to join.
As a matter of fact, Comrade Stalin never suggested amendments to the Geneva
Convention. |
Gazprom sees gas demand, output depressed for 5 yrs |
REUTERS |
Apr.
9, 2009. "Basically Gazprom is being knocked back 22 years," said Mikhail
Korchemkin from East European Gas Analysis, adding that the last time when
Gazprom produced such low volumes was in 1987, when the Soviet Union still
existed. |
Pipeline blast halts Turkmen gas exports to Russia |
REUTERS |
Apr.
9, 2009. "Pipelines do not explode from low pressure. In January, Russia fully
cut gas to Ukraine, but there was no explosion," Korchemkin said. |
Russian March gas output collapses, oil rises |
REUTERS |
Apr.
2, 2009. Such low production levels have been unseen over the past decade, even
during summer months, when Gazprom puts some wells on planned maintenance. |
Gazprom's
'agent of influence' arrives in Tehran |
RIA NOVOSTI |
Feb. 20, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin,
director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy, said: "Schroeder as
Gazprom's agent of influence will talk about export flexibility in Tehran." |
Gazprom's plans for South Stream gas pipeline become more ambitious |
bne |
Feb. 13, 2009. "The project cannot
fly. It can become the last straw that would break Gazprom's back," argues
Korchemkin. |
Russia-Ukraine Gas Deal
Could Bolster Nabucco Plan |
Dow Jones |
Feb. 5, 2009. "Simple mathematics
show Gazprom will be unable to fulfill the transit agreement with Ukraine and
fill its other European pipelines at the same time," said Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Putin Undermines Gazprom as Ukraine Pact Freezes Out Yushchenko |
Bloomberg.com |
Feb. 3, 2009. “Putin’s energy
doctrine is in danger,” says Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas
Analysis, a consulting firm in Malvern, Pennsylvania. “It doesn’t work in bad
times.” |
Bulgaria Bills
Gazprom |
The Wall Street Journal |
Jan. 24, 2009. Some experts disagree
with Mr. Medvedev, saying European importers have agreements with Gazprom, not
with Ukraine. "All contracts say Gazprom has to deliver gas to a specific point
west of Ukraine's border with the European Union," said Mikhail Korchemkin. |
Russia-Ukraine Gas Deal Can't Guarantee Europe Supply |
Dow Jones |
Jan. 22, 2009. "Shortage of gas in
Ukraine's underground storage facilities can put Russian gas supplies to Europe
at risk again next winter," said Korchemkin. "This is a time bomb." |
Despite Deal,
EU Still Awaits Flow of Russian Gas |
The Wall Street Journal |
Jan. 13, 2009. Independent gas
analyst Mikhail Korchemkin, who is based in Pennsylvania, said Ukraine was
right. "Russia is deliberately complicating the situation," he said in a phone
interview. "They sent the gas to the wrong terminal." |
Accusations
Fly as Gas Fails to Flow |
The Moscow Times |
Jan. 13, 2009. Naftogaz needs Russian
gas also coming in at the other two import terminals in order to feed the Balkan
pipeline, said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the U.S.-based East European Gas
Analysis consultancy. |
Gazprom debt burden to speed up gas crisis end |
REUTERS |
Jan.
12, 2009. Mikhail Korchemkin from Pennsylvania-based East European Gas Analysis
think tank believes prices will fall as low as $180 per tcm in the third quarter
and Matthew Vogel from Barclays Capital sees average Gazprom 2009 prices at
$250. |
ANALYSIS-Small Russian gas firms face risks in Gazprom row |
REUTERS |
Jan.
8, 2009. Korchemkin said Gazprom's production profile
allowed considerable flexibility and there was no need to shut down wells. "They
produce as much as markets need. In summer they produce 1.25 bcm a day, in
winter up to 1.65 bcm per day. So now it is not a problem for them to reduce
production by 200 mcm a day," he said. |
Russia's row with Ukraine over gas supplies |
Forbes |
Jan. 6, 2009. The Balkan pipeline
is more vulnerable to the cuts of Russian supplies because there are no gas
storage facilities at the inlet of the export route. Pipelines running from
Ukraine into Slovakia are linked to the huge underground gas storage facilities
of Western Ukraine, therefore supplies are more secure. |
Ukraine holds firm in Russia gas debt dispute |
The Financial Times |
Dec. 30, 2008. Mikhail Korchemkin,
of East European Gas Analysis, a consultancy, said there was “no cause for
alarm”. European stocks are unusually high after a late start to the winter and
a decline in demand as economies shrink. |
Publications of 2007-2008 |
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